PREDICTABILITY OF FOOD RIOTS-INTERNATIONAL PRICES AN INDICATOR?

Estimates vary regarding the percentage of global population that go hungry every night, especially in African, Asian and South American continents. Probably it may be fair to presume that at least one third of the population are suffering from food shortage either due to inaccessibility or unavailability. There are many field studies which go to support the above assumption. The prices of staple grains like rice wheat and corn have an important bearing on the peace on this planet and unrest becomes a norm when these prices rice uncontrollably due to many reasons. While natural causes like drought and flood cannot be controlled or predicted, diversion of food for non -food purpose like bio-fuels is definitely avoidable to reduce the impact of shortage on international prices of food grains. The issue of food riots assumes added significance in the light of unexpected drought in the US creating supply shortages for grains like corn. It is in this context that recent attempts to predict riots in some of the undeveloped, under developed and developing countries on the basis of price movements in the global market need to be appreciated. Here is an expose on this interesting theory that seems to be helpful in anticipating food riots and taking preventive action to reduce such incidences in the world.

"The researchers define the riot danger zone in relation to the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the monthly change in international prices for a basket of cereals, dairy, meat, sugars and oil/fats. Riots become more likely, their model showed, when the index goes above 210. The index has been hovering above that "disruption threshold" since July, pushed upward by the drought in the U.S., the world's biggest exporter of corn and wheat. "What happened was that food prices went up exactly as predicted," Bar-Yam says. Wheat is now at $9 per bushel — higher than the high of $8.94 hit in February 2011, when the Arab Spring was in full swing. Corn is at $7.56 a bushel, close to the $7.65 highs of 2007-2008 — though it spiked well above $8 a bushel this summer. The Mideast is particularly sensitive to wheat prices; it imports most of its wheat, which is a major staple for the region. While the drought is causing the current spike in food prices, prices have also been on a steady, long-term trajectory upward. So what's behind that trend? NECSI's model has fingered two key suspects: speculation and the conversion of corn to ethanol. (More on that later.) Even without the drought, Bar-Yam says, food prices were headed toward the riot zone by early next year. The institute's work isn't without critics. Blogging at G-Feed, economist Dave Lobell notes that NECSI's papers aren't peer-reviewed — they are simply released publicly. "But in the case of NECSI, I think they have come up with a pretty satisfying solution — making testable predictions about the next year," Lobell writes.

How far this theory will hold good in future is not sure though there is a good possibility that such predictions can enable the governments in the third world countries to be prepared to handle the situation more effectively, if and they arise. The world is increasingly becoming a global village with porous borders and no country can remain isolated from events taking place in another country related to essential materials like food. It must be realized that very few countries are self sufficient in food and inter dependency is the corner stone of WTO trade regimes and policies equitable to all. Quest for land to expand food production is taking some rich countries to buy out or lease out vast stretches of cultivable land from countries having such lands without being able to raise productivity any where near to the levels achieved in technologically powerful countries. This is a sign that food will remain the single most critical factor that will decide whether peace will prevail in this world in the coming years.

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com

MICROSOFT AND FOOD-A QUESTIONABLE INVESTMENT

No one disputes that this Planet is heading for difficult days in a few years' time if food production does not keep pace with the expanding population. The debate revolves around the means required to achieve quantum jump in food production. Options like expanding the area of cultivation, increasing productivity through better inputs to agriculture and reducing wastage are good to talk about but are mired in uncertainties and road blocks which are difficult to be overcome easily. Genetically engineered agricultural crops are touted as an answer to the vexing food problem but unfortunately the GM technology has not been able to convince majority of scientists that it is a safe bet beyond a shade of doubt regarding its credentials to achieve perceptible yield increase. Another dimension to this problem is the inability of many poor farmers to cultivate available land due to economic limitations to harness the essential inputs to agriculture. Recent entry of large charitable organizations into efforts to generate technologies that can work efficiently without vital inputs like nitrogen fertilizers and water is a welcome development. Here is a report about such an effort by one such organization which wants to evolve cereal plants with an ability, like leguminous plants, to fix atmospheric nitrogen and self generate the required natural fertilizer.

"It is one of the largest single investments into GM in the UK and will be used to cultivate corn, wheat and rice that need little or no fertiliser.  It comes at a time when bio-tech researchers are trying to allay public fears over genetic modification. The work at the John Innes Centre in Norwich is hoped to benefit African farmers who cannot afford fertiliser. Agricultural fertiliser is important for crop production across the globe. But the many of the poorest farmers cannot afford fertiliser - and it is responsible for large greenhouse gas emissions. The John Innes Centre is trying to engineer cereal crops that could get nitrogen from the air - as peas and beans do - rather than needing chemical ammonia spread on fields. If successful, it is hoped the project could revolutionise agriculture and, in particular, help struggling maize farmers in sub-Saharan Africa - something the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is keen to do. 'Major problems' Professor Giles Oldroyd from the John Innes Centre, who is leading the team, said the project was vital for poorer producers and could have a "huge impact" on global agriculture. "We believe if we can get nitrogen fixing cereals we can deliver much higher yields to farmers in Africa and allow them to grow enough food for themselves." However, opponents of GM crops say results will not be achieved for decades at best, and global food shortages could be addressed now through improving distribution and cutting waste. Pete Riley, campaign director of the group GM Freeze, said there was a realisation by many farmers across the world that "GM is failing to deliver". "If you look in America, yields haven't increased by any significant amount and often go down," he said. He added: "Now we're seeing real, major problems for farmers in terms of weeds that are resistant to the herbicides which GM crops have been modified to tolerate."

While the gesture from organizations like the one above is worthy of appreciation, use of the funds exclusively to go in for genetic modification to alter the basic nature of cereal plants and their genetic signature may invite criticism from those having severe reservations regarding safety of GM crops. With most consumers shunning GM foods, if offered as a choice, how far the newly engineered crops will find acceptance is a question that begs for an answer. Alternate options like traditional hybridization and other possible techniques should not be ignored because development of new strains takes long years to fructify and world should have as many options as possible when the crunch comes.

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com

THE DAY OF RECKONING FOR GM CROPS-REACHING THE DEAD END?

GM foods are facing enormous consumer resistance due to the "trust deficit" that exists to day between the GM food producers and the consumer, mainly because of the "opaque" manner in which the former work. While the safety of GM foods has not yet been established beyond a shadow of doubt, its potential environmental hazard is yet to be realized widely. It is another matter that 80% of the processed foods consumed in the US contain one or more of GM food ingredients, without the consumer ever knowing about it! The emerging consumer awareness about the uncertainties inherent in GM foods is putting pressure on the industry to declare the presence of GM ingredients in packed foods as a part of the label. Though the GM food lobby is powerful enough to deflect criticisms, the recent report that even they are rattled by the emergence of weedicide resistant weeds which seem to have adversely affected the crop yields. Here is a take on this new development with far reaching implications.

"This is a complex problem," said weed scientist David Shaw in remarks to a national "summit" of weed experts in Washington to come up with a plan to battle weeds that have developed resistance to herbicides. Weed resistance has spread to more than 12 million U.S. acres and primarily afflicts key agricultural areas in the U.S. Southeast and the corn and soybean growing areas of the Midwest. Many of the worst weeds, some of which grow more than six feet and can sharply reduce crop yields, have become resistant to the popular glyphosate-based weed-killer Roundup, as well as other common herbicides. Monsanto Co's Roundup worked well for many years. It became prevalent with the commercialization of "Roundup Ready" crops Monsanto developed to tolerate the weedkiller, making it easy for farmers to treat their fields. But now super weeds have developed a resistance to Roundup, and farmers are scrambling to figure out how to combat their weeds. "We don't have that next technology. We have to get back to the fundamentals," said Shaw, who chairs a task force that is working with the U.S. Department of Agriculture on how to tackle weed resistance problems. Several farmers spoke out about their struggles at the summit, as did experts from the USDA and crop consultants. "This is our number one issue," said Arkansas crop consultant Chuck Farr. "It is a challenge every day, every field." Harold Coble, an agromist and weed scientist with the USDA, called the problem of weed resistance a "game changer" and said farmers must become more versatile. Too many have simply been relying on the chemicals for too long, he said.

Whether the above development will restrain further growth of the GM food industry is some thing to be watched in future. Already the cost of GM seeds and the high cost of cultivation of such crops are impediments for the growth of the industry. Promised yield increase using GM seeds is not happening in many places where cultivation of GM crops has been popular for some time. If the GM technology innovators are not able to find a solution to this emerging dangers, there is every likelihood of farmers reverting to conventional agricultural practices which may sound the death knell for the GM crops industry.  

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com